The RBI’s monetary policy review on Wednesday will offer cues on the extent of demonetisation’s impact on the broader economy; India may well be staring at a GDP growth of less the 6.5 percent in 2016-17, the lowest since 2012-13.
Has the Budget laid the ground for the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to officially forecast a sub-6.5 percent GDP growth for 2016-17, the lowest in five years?
Finance Minister Arun Jaitley did not say it in his speech, but buried in the Budget documents was the government’s own acknowledgement about demonetisation’s destabilising effect on the economy.
Sample this. “The growth momentum which had been picking up consistently since the previous year is facing a temporary setback, attributable to a number of macroeconomic factors,” the finance ministry said in the Medium-term Fiscal Policy Statement in the Budget for 2017-18.
In January, the Central Statistics Office (CSO) has projected that, in real terms, India’s GDP—the value of all goods and services produced in the country—will grow at 7.1 percent in 2016-17 from 7.6 percent last year.
This forecast was based on a nominal GDP growth of 11.9 percent.
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