As earnings season shifts into high gear next week in what is expected to be the weakest US quarterly results reporting period since 2009, the hope among some is that this is as bad as it's going to get.
The US earnings recession that began in the third quarter of 2015 is expected to continue until the second quarter, with profits slated to fall 2.2% - not as bad as the nearly 8% drop expected in the first quarter.
US oil prices, at around $40 a barrel, are well off their mid-February lows near $26, while the US dollar index is down 3.7% from a year ago and US unemployment is now near an eight-year low.
A turnaround in profits would blunt one of investors' biggest worries, an ongoing weak earnings cycle. The S&P 500 has recovered from a sharp early-year selloff and is up 1.8% year to date, while its price-to-earnings ratio is above its long-term average.
Still, the market is 2.5% below its May 2015 high, and there are plenty of concerns keeping investors from becoming too upbeat at this point. Just 28% of investors surveyed this week by the American Association of Individual Investors expect higher stock prices in the next six months, below the long-term average of 39%.
Analysts currently project a 7.8% decline in first-quarter earnings, according to Thomson Reuters data, and Goldman Sachs analysts say forecasts are still too optimistic.
Also worrying some investors, cash flow has declined for S&P 500 companies in the past year, making it harder for them to buy back shares. Buybacks help boost earnings numbers on a per-share basis.
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